Jack Ma, founder of e-commerce giant Alibaba, will not create another million jobs in the US, as he promised a year ago. "The compromise was made under the premise of a friendly US-China association and rational trade relations, but the situation is no longer the same," the tycoon told Xinhua this week.
Not even. After spending a year trying to woo President Donald Trump, China came to the conclusion that the clashes - or clashes - in the world's most important bilateral relationship go beyond mere disagreements over trade practices. The tone between the two governments is increasingly harsh. Earlier this weekend, Beijing canceled military interlocution and called on US ambassador Terry Branstad to provide clarification after Washington imposed sanctions on China for buying Russian military supplies.
The two powers are immersed in a trade war that has erupted again this week. After taxing over $ 60 billion in Chinese imports, Trump has mandated the Administration to levy more tax on products worth $ 200 billion and still threaten to tax another $ 267 billion. Xi Jinping's government retaliated with its own taxes on $ 60 billion worth of US products in this last round, and refused to attend talks the US proposed to take place last week in Washington. In the assessment of the German study center MERICS, the dispute has already entered "dangerous levels".
Also last week, Trump again insisted that "the time has come to face China" so that the country will allow a more balanced trade balance, open its markets and ensure respect for intellectual property. "There's no other choice. It's been too long. They're hurting us, "he told Fox.
In the short term, such measures will not cause irreparable damage to China. JP Morgan Chase estimates the impact of 0.6% of GDP on the world's second largest economy. The State Council (China) has approved measures to help companies facing difficulties, ranging from cutting custom costs to providing financing for small exporting companies.
"The idea that China is dependent on its foreign trade is a bit outdated; its internal market represents an increasing proportion of its growth. It is also less dependent on its sales to the United States today, negotiates much more with the countries of the Indian and Pacific, "says Hervé Lemahieu, a researcher at the Lowy Institute in Sydney, Australia, and director of the Asia Power Index , which measures the real strength of countries in the Asia-Pacific region.
In the long run, if the dispute continues to escalate and the Trump Administration step up its efforts to leave China aside in the world economy, the consequences can be much more serious. "Economic integration serves as a counterbalance to military tension," Lemahieu explains. Eliminating this balance, the balance is broken, and the risk of a military escalation rises.
In Beijing, statements such as those of Trump stimulate among Government officials the view that the trade war is part of a wider strategy of its competitor to block the Chinese rise on the world stage, and also that China has become very dependent technology and products.
The two powers have long vied in areas such as technology and control of the South China Sea, and mutual mistrust has been growing. In its latest national security assessment, the United States has called the Asian giant a "strategic rival." In addition, they passed legislation to veto Chinese investments in the technology sector and stepped up gestures to Taiwan, an island China considers to be part of its territory. Last Friday, Washington imposed sanctions on a Chinese Ministry of Defense department for buying rockets and fighters from Moscow, claiming that it violates its sanctions against Russia. It's not about the White House alone: the sense of affront to China's alleged abusive policies extends across the US political spectrum. Europe and Japan also share many of the same reservations, although they differ on how to respond.
Already Beijing, which for years followed Deng Xiaoping's advice to "be patient and hide the force," but under Xi Jinping aspires to a world order that best reflects his interests, does not intend to accept Washington's demands. In his eyes, this would be a humiliation and would jeopardize the role of protagonist in the global board, which considers its historical right.
